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赢下点球大战到底是靠技术还是靠运气?

kira86 于2018-07-09发布 l 已有人浏览
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点球大战到底是体现了一只球队的能力还是运气呢?这些数据告诉你。
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点球.jpg
How to win a penalty shootout I The Economist
如何赢下点球大战
It can be a long walk to the penalty box. Thousands of people watchin' and shoutin'. It's the longest 12 yards in sport.
在足球比赛中,走向禁区的过程可能无比艰难。成千上万的人关注着,欢呼着。这是运动中最漫长的12码。
Lucy Bronze is one of the top-ranked female footballers in the world. As England captain, she knows a thing or two about penalties.
露西·布龙泽是世界上排名最高的女足运动员之一。作为英格兰队队长,她精通点球。
But, is taking a penalty a show of a team's quality or just luck?
但是,罚点球是体现了一只球队的能力还是运气呢?
Taking a penalty is the ultimate test of a player's nerve.
罚点球是对球员抗压能力的终极考验。
The long walk from the halfway line to the penalty spot can turn player's legs to jelly. Very few players are exceptional at taking penalties.
从中线步行到点球点的过程可以使球员紧张到腿软。很少有球员可以做到毫不紧张。
On average, about 73% of penalties are scored in shootouts and 78% in matches.
平均而言,点球大战中的进球率为73%,而常规赛中的进球率为78%。
Even Lionel Messi, one of the best strikers in the world, is distinctly average at converting penalties.
即使是身为世界顶级射手的莱昂内尔·梅西,点球进球率也只维持在平均水平。
This suggests penalties are more about luck than skill.
这意味着对于点球来说,运气比技术更重要。
Most football fans believe that Germany is exceptionally good at penalties and England, exceptionally bad.
很多球迷认为,德国在点球大战中表现尤其出色,而英格兰则格外糟糕。
But, data shows that the current England players have had better conversion rates, though from a very small sample.
但数据显示,目前的英格兰球员的得分率更高,尽管数据来自一个很小的样本。
So, how do you win a penalty shootout?
所以,该如何赢下一场点球大战呢?
We've mapped every successful World Cup penalty scored in shootouts.
我们将世界杯点球大战中每一例成功罚入的点球记录了下来,绘制成这张热力图。
The heat map shows that shooting left or right is the most popular option for penalty takers.
热力图显示,向左或向右罚球是球员们的首选。
The top corners of the goal are the hardest areas to aim for, but the reward is that just two percent of these top corner shots are saved.
球门最顶端角落处是最难瞄准的区域,但射入该区域的点球也只有2%被扑出。
That may work for star strikers, but for less skillful players, it's best to hoof the ball high and in the center.
这对于顶级射手来说可能是个好选择,但普通球员最好还是把球踢高点,踢向球门正中。
One of the England goalkeepers was telling me that there's a lot of people now who do go down the middle, just hit it as hard as they can,
一位英格兰守门员告诉我,现在许多球员都竭尽所能朝球门中下方踢,
but I think if you hit it down the middle, you're gonna look stupid if the keeper just stands there and just goes, thank you very much.
但我认为,如果守门员正好站在那个位置且把球扑出去了,你就会看起来很傻。谢谢你啦。
Then, everyone goes, why didn't you go at the side?
然后,就会有人好奇,为什么不往边上踢呢?
Analysis suggests that the most important part of a penalty shootout is the coin toss.
分析认为,点球大战中最重要的部分其实是抛硬币。
Winning the toss means that you can choose to go first, and in a standard shootout, the team that goes first wins 60% of the time.
在抛硬币中获胜意味着你可以选择先罚,在标准的点球大战中,先罚球的队伍最终胜出率达到了60%。
So, whether you have a Messi or a Bronze on your team, the odds come down to a simple coin flip.
所以,无论你的队伍里有梅西还是布龙泽,最终赢球概率可能靠的只最简单的抛硬币。
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