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“印度制造”何时能超越“中国制造”?(双语)

cocotang 于2015-08-24发布 l 已有人浏览
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印度制造——就连这种表述听起来都有点不对劲儿。无论好坏,这都是来自古吉拉特邦(Gujarat)的印度总理纳伦德拉?莫迪(Narendra Modi)提出的口号,用来形容他推动印度转型为制造业大国的努力。这早就应该成为印度的目标。
Make in India. Even the term sounds slightly defective. For better or worse, that is the slogan with which Narendra Modi, India’s made-in-Gujarat prime minister, has branded his effort to transform the country into a manufacturing powerhouse. The goal is overdue.  
印度制造——就连这种表述听起来都有点不对劲儿。无论好坏,这都是来自古吉拉特邦(Gujarat)的印度总理纳伦德拉?莫迪(Narendra Modi)提出的口号,用来形容他推动印度转型为制造业大国的努力。这早就应该成为印度的目标。
It may also be unrealistic. The country does not have a good reputation for making things. Even Indians shun their own products. Jugaad, the so-called Indian way of innovation, was born of scarcity. Mihir Sharma, a commentator, says his countrymen make things “held together with cello-tape [EDS: SIC]and paan stains and prayer” — although high-tech goods, for example in aerospace, are actually of high quality. 
它或许也是不现实的。印度在制造业方面没有良好的声誉。就连印度人也看不起本国产品。印度人所谓的“拼凑式创新”(Jugaad Innovation)是物资稀缺的产物。评论员米希尔?夏尔马(Mihir Sharma)称,他的同胞们把零件“用胶带、颜料和祈祷拼凑在一起”——尽管印度的高科技产品(例如在航空航天领域)质量还是比较高的。
If the Indians make some things shoddily, they also do not make enough. Manufacturing accounts for only 15 per cent of national output, against 32 per cent in China and 34 per cent in Thailand. (The figures were revised up slightly for last year because of new calculation methods.) 
如果说印度人生产的产品质量很差,他们制造的数量也不够。制造业只占印度全国总产出的15%,而中国的这个比例达到32%,泰国是34%。(由于采用了新的计算方法,去年的数字略微有所上调。)
Optimists say India’s time has come. Wages have quintupled in China in the past decade. The renminbi has sharply appreciated, notwithstanding this week’s surprise reversal. That has helped nations such as Mexico, and even the US, to claw back manufacturing competitiveness. If they can do it, why not India? It has savvy entrepreneurs, abundant raw materials from cotton to steel, growing domestic demand and 1m new workers crowding into the jobs market each month. In Mr Modi it has a leader bent on development. Surely those are all the ingredients required for a manufacturing boom? 
乐观者称,印度制造业腾飞的时机已经到来。过去10年,中国的工资水平提升了四倍。人民币大幅升值(尽管最近出现了意外的逆转)。这些情况已帮助墨西哥(甚至美国)等国重新获得了制造业竞争力。如果它们能做到,印度有什么理由做不到?印度拥有精明的企业家、从棉花到钢铁的丰富原材料、不断扩大的国内需求以及每个月涌入就业市场的100万新增工人。莫迪又是一个决心推动发展的领导人。难道这些不是实现制造业繁荣所需的全部要素吗?
That is the optimists’ case. So far it is unproven. This week, though, the manufacturing story received a fillip with an announcement by Foxconn, Taiwan’s contract manufacturer, that it would invest $5bn in a plant in Maharashtra state, creating 50,000 jobs. That might only be the start, said Terry Gou, the chairman, who said that in 10 years Foxconn could have a factory in every Indian state. As if that were not enough, Xiaomi, a Chinese smartphone manufacturer, added to the cheer by saying it planned a separate tie-up with Foxconn to produce handsets in Andhra Pradesh.
这是乐观者给出的理由。迄今还未被证实。然而,最近印度的制造业大国梦被添了一把火:台湾代工制造商富士康(Foxconn)宣布将投资50亿美元,在马哈拉施特拉邦(Maharashtra)建造一座工厂,创造5万个就业机会。富士康董事长郭台铭(Terry Gou)称,这或许只是一个开始,10年后富士康可能在印度每个邦都拥有一座工厂。仿佛这还不够,中国智能手机制造商小米(Xiaomi)锦上添花地宣布,将与富士康联手在安德拉邦(Andhra Pradesh)生产手机。
“To some extent one did feel that India had missed the boat,” says Arvind Subramanian, Mr Modi’s chief economic adviser, adding that the country had squandered an obvious comparative advantage, namely cheap labour. Given rapid mechanisation and a world awash with inexpensive gadgets, some say the golden age of manufacturing as a development tool is, in any case, over. Mr Subramanian says making things can be an important driver of growth but it will take time. The Foxconn investment could be a game-changer. If successful, it could alter the perception of India. In a country where it is hard to get national legislation to stick, crucially it might also spur competition among states seeking to woo manufacturers.
莫迪的首席经济顾问阿文德?萨勃拉曼尼亚(Arvind Subramanian)表示:“在某种程度上,人们的确感觉印度错失了机遇。”他补充说,印度已经浪费了一个明显的比较优势——廉价劳动力。鉴于快速实现的机械化和世界已经充斥廉价产品,有人称,将制造业作为发展工具的黄金时代无论如何已经结束。萨勃拉曼尼亚表示,制造业可以成为增长的重要推动力,但这需要时间。富士康的投资可能成为一个分水岭。如果成功的话,它有望改变人们对印度的看法。更重要的是,在一个很难得到国家层面立法支持的国家,它或许还会刺激各邦为了吸引制造商而展开竞争。
Still, the obstacles are formidable. First is the question of physical infrastructure. India lacks the ports, roads and railways to transport goods, and the dependable energy supplies to keep factories humming. Taking into account overall costs, the country is only 5 per cent cheaper for manufacturing than Mexico, according to Boston Consulting Group. Outside certain industries, such as cars, it also lacks the ecosystem of suppliers that make clusters such as the Pearl River Delta so competitive. 
话虽如此,印度面临着可畏的障碍。首先是基础设施问题。印度缺少港口、公路和铁路运输货物,缺少可靠的能源供应维持工厂运转。据波士顿咨询集团(Boston Consulting Group)估计,在计入整体成本的基础上,印度制造业的成本只比墨西哥低5%。除了某些产业(如汽车业)外,印度还缺少使珠三角这样的制造业集群如此具有竞争力的供应商生态体系。
Perhaps worse is the state of India’s soft infrastructure. Would-be factory owners cannot get hold of land or get rid of workers. Plants operate on suboptimal scale or use ruses to get around labour laws: only 16 per cent of workers are formally employed. Unreasonable laws are a breeding ground for corruption. So is an unreasonable tax environment, which can be as changeable — and devastating — as the monsoon season. Investors who wade through all this are not always thanked for their efforts. Delhi is seeking $100m in damages from Nestlé, accusing the Swiss company of poisoning Indians by allowing high levels of lead in its noodles. That claim seems unlikely. Regulators in the US, Canada and New Zealand have pronounced the same food safe to eat. 
也许更糟糕的是印度的软环境。潜在的工厂老板无法获得所需要的土地,也无法开除工人。工厂以次优规模运行,或者使出下策来规避劳动法:只有16%的员工属于正式录用。不合理的法律滋生了腐败。还有像季风季节一样多变(且具有毁灭性的)的不合理税收环境。历经千辛万苦克服这一切困难的投资者,并非总能得到感谢。德里方面正寻求从雀巢(Nestlé)获得1亿美元的损害赔偿金,指控这家瑞士公司生产的面条含铅较高,毒害了印度人。这个主张似乎不太可信。美国、加拿大和新西兰的监管机构都已宣布,同样的食品是安全、可以食用的。
Mr Modi has promised to bulldoze such obstacles. All he needs is a bulldozer. There have been efforts to rein in retroactive taxes. The upper limit for foreign ownership in certain industries, including defence, has been raised. Not much else has happened. Neither land nor labour reform is getting far. Infrastructure is a work in progress. “Modi needs to get into the nitty-gritty,” says Gurcharan Das, an author and former head of Procter & Gamble India. If Mr Modi is to make Make in India a reality, he will need more than a slogan. 
 
莫迪已承诺要清除这些障碍。他所需要的只是一台推土机。他出台了遏制追征税款的措施。某些行业(包括军工)的外资所有权上限已被提高。其他方面没有什么变化。土地和劳动力方面的改革都没有太大进展。基础设施仍在建设中。作家、宝洁(P&G)印度前负责人古尔恰兰?达斯(Gurcharan Das)说:“莫迪需要亲自关注细节。”如果莫迪要让“印度制造”成为现实,他需要的将不仅仅是一个口号。
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