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研究:中国碳排放量显著低于设想(双语)

cocotang 于2015-08-22发布 l 已有人浏览
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一项研究显示,中国的碳排放量可能显著低于设想,这是今年12月巴黎举行重要气候变化会议之前一个令人吃惊的结论。
China’s carbon emissions may be significantly lower than assumed, a study has shown, in a surprising conclusion ahead of a big climate change meeting in Paris in December.  
一项研究显示,中国的碳排放量可能显著低于设想,这是今年12月巴黎举行重要气候变化会议之前一个令人吃惊的结论。
China’s emissions have been soaring for years, surpassing those of the US and Europe as its rapidly growing economy tapped enormous reserves of coal to fuel power plants, smelters and industry. Some forecasters even expect China to lead the world in cumulative emissions, which factor in years of smoke from Europe’s industrial revolution. 
中国的排放量在多年飙升后已超过美国和欧洲,快速发展的中国经济利用巨大的煤炭储量,为发电厂、冶炼厂和工业提供燃料。一些预测者甚至预期,中国将在累计排放量(计入欧洲工业革命以来历年的排放量)上居于世界首位。
The pall of smog over big cities and the thick brown or even greenish smoke from industrial plants is easy to blame on the burning of dirty, low-quality coal and even coal waste. But a study in the science journal Nature this week concludes that China’s use of lower-quality coal results in lower greenhouse gas emissions than previously thought. It estimates that 2013 emissions were 14 per cent lower than estimates by international institutes. 
笼罩中国大城市的雾霾,以及工厂烟囱冒出的棕色甚至泛绿的浓烟,很容易被归咎于燃烧肮脏的劣质煤,甚至煤矸石。但科学期刊《自然》(Nature)本周发表的一项研究得出结论认为,中国使用低品质煤炭所造成的温室气体排放量低于以前的估算。这项研究估计,2013年排放量比国际机构的估算结果低14%。
“A lot of people feel surprised because we normally don’t expect that China’s emissions are underestimated,” said Dabo Guan, one of the lead authors of the study by the School of International Development at the University of East Anglia in the UK. 
“很多人都觉得惊讶,因为我们一般想不到中国的排放量会被高估,”研究报告的主要作者之一关大博表示。这项研究是由英国东英吉利大学(University of East Anglia)国际发展学院进行的。
At issue is the method of calculation used to estimate the emissions. Observers calculate emissions based on estimates of units of energy consumed, a measure that in turn relies on a conversion factor for converting the physical coal used into standard coal units. 
问题在于用来估计排放量的计算方法。观察人士根据消耗的能量单位来计算排放量,这进而依赖于一个转换系数,将实际使用的物理煤转换为标准煤炭单位。
The study built on a national survey of about 5,000 coal mines covering about 85 per cent of Chinese coal production to conclude that coal quality was generally poorer than that used in the west. Poor quality coal emits more air pollutants per unit of energy, but up to 50 per cent less carbon dioxide per tonne. 
这项研究基于对中国各地大约5000座煤矿(覆盖中国大约85%的煤炭产量)的调查,结论是煤炭质量普遍不如西方所用的煤炭。按单位能量计算,劣质煤炭排放更多的空气污染物,但每吨煤炭可能少排放50%的二氧化碳。
That means the formula used to convert units of physical coal to units of standard coal, and thus emissions, is distorted for China, resulting in an overestimation of emissions. That is the case even when assuming the country uses 10 per cent more coal than reflected in official statistics, the researchers argue. 
这意味着,用来将物理煤转换成标准煤炭单位、进而计算出排放量的公式不符合中国实际,导致排放量被高估。研究者们提出,即使假设中国使用了比官方统计数字多出10%的煤炭,这个结论也是成立的。
China’s official statistics often fail to capture smaller or private coal mines, industrial facilities and even relatively large power plants and coal-to-chemicals refineries. That was true when the economy was booming, but now slowing growth and tighter policies are driving many of those plants out of business. 
中国的官方统计数据往往不能覆盖较小或私有的煤矿、工业设施、甚至较大电厂和煤制化学品厂,尤其是在前些年经济繁荣时。但现在经济增长放缓和政策收紧正在迫使这类煤矿和工厂中的很多企业停业。
Other sources believe that projections of emissions are overdone. Greenpeace argues that drops in apparent consumption of coal in the past year means China is closer than Beijing thinks to reaching the point at which coal consumption — and thus emissions — will peak. 
其他消息来源认为,排放预测有些过头。绿色和平组织(Greenpeace)提出,过去一年的煤炭表观消费量下降意味着,中国距离煤炭消耗量——以及排放量——达到峰值的转折点比北京所认为的更近。
Since emissions from the world’s largest polluter are still growing, negotiators have focused on when emissions will peak as crucial to how the world will get greenhouse gases under control. Beijing’s target is to peak around 2030. 
由于中国这个全球最大污染国的排放量仍在不断增加,谈判代表们迄今关注的焦点是排放量何时达到峰值,这对世界将如何控制温室气体排放至关重要。北京方面的目标是在2030年左右达到峰值。
Mr Guan believes that emphasis is misplaced. He hopes his team’s approach to assessing Chinese emissions can be applied to other countries that have far less robust statistical collection than China and even less ability to measure, let alone control, their emissions. 
关大博认为,这个着重点是错位的。他希望,他的团队用来评估中国排放量的方法,能被推广到统计工作远远不如中国完善、测算(且不提控制)排放量的能力甚至更加逊色的其它国家。
Otherwise, he says, by focusing on China and overlooking rising coal use in India, Indonesia or Africa, negotiators in Paris could make a similar mistake to the 1997 Kyoto protocol, which tried to limit emissions from the US and Europe but failed to consider China. 
他说,否则的话,念念不忘中国而忽视印度、印尼或非洲煤炭使用量不断上升的情况,可能使谈判代表们在巴黎会议上重复1997年《京都议定书》(Kyoto protocol)的错误,那个协定试图限制美国和欧洲的排放,但未能考虑中国。
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